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Pricing and Hedging GDP-Linked Bonds in Incomplete Markets
(The Wharton Financial Institutions Center. The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, PA, 2017-09)
We model the super-replication of payoffs linked to a country's GDP as a stochastic linear program on a discrete time and state-space scenario tree to price GDP-linked bonds. As a byproduct of the model, we obtain a hedging ...
Risk management optimization for sovereign debt restructuring
(Journal of Globalization and Development, Vol. 6(2), pp. 181–213, Feb. 2016.; The Wharton School Financial Institutions Centre No. 14-10., 2015-12)
Debt restructuring is one of the policy tools available for resolving sovereign debt crises and, while unorthodox, it is not uncommon. We propose a scenario analysis for debt sustainability and integrate it with scenario ...
Stochastic debt sustainability analysis for sovereigns and the scope for optimization modeling
(The Wharton Financial Institutions Center. The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, PA., 2017-05)
We express the opinion that sovereign debt sustainability analysis must be augmented by stochastic correlated risk factors and a risk measure to capture tail effects. Crisis situations can thus be adequately specified and ...
Risk management for sovereign financing within a debt sustainability framework
(European Stability Mechanism Working Paper No. 31, 2018-09)
The mix of instruments used to finance a sovereign is a key determinant of debt sustainability through its effect on funding costs and risks. We extend standard debt sustainability analysis to incorporate debt-financing ...