Excess returns in the EMS: Do "weak" currencies still exist after the widening of the fluctuation bands?

Abstract

Excess Returns in the EMS: Do "Weak" Currencies Still Exist after the Widening of the Fluctuation Bands? - The authors analyze the issue of how the different institutional arrangements within the ERM have affected the behaviour of excess returns on DM-denominated assets and contribute to the debate on the future of the EMS. Their approach consists in estimating simple forecasting models for interest differentials, and testing for the presence of significant (negative) mean prediction errors. The comparison between predicted and actual outcome indicates that the new system might be characterized by the virtual disappearance of "weak" currencies, as the widening of the bands has removed the expectations of realignments which resulted in high interest differentials. © 1995 Institut fur Weltwirtschaft an der Universitat Kiel.