Real exchange rate effects of fiscal expansion under trade restrictions

Abstract

We develop a small open-economy trade model where either a tariff, or a quota, or a voluntary export restraint (VER) exists, and where one exported, one imported, one non-traded, and one public good are produced. Within this context we examine the effects of fiscal expansion on welfare and the real exchange rate (RER). Among other things, it is demonstrated that when the direct social profitability effect of the public good is positive and the public good is a net complement to the non-traded good, fiscal expansion causes an appreciation of the RER under free trade, and under a tariff when the public good is also a net complement to the imported good. The paper identifies additional conditions required to ensure the appreciation of the RER, due to fiscal expansion, under an import quota or a VER.