Earthquake Forecasting Based on Multi-State System Methodology

Abstract

This paper deals with earthquake long term predictions based on multi-state system methodology. As a reference we consider the South America case which was examined (Tsapanos, Bull Geol Soc Gr XXXIV/4:1611–1617, 2001) in the light of the Markov model, in order to define large earthquake recurrences. In this work we make the first attempt to describe seismic zoning data as data of a multi-state system (MSS) and explore earthquake genesis by evaluating intensity rates and transition probabilities between zones using various probabilistic models. For this purpose we incorporate into the procedure discussed in Tsapanos (2001) the effect, via the underlying distribution, of sojourn times between transitions. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media New York.