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Pricing and Hedging GDP-Linked Bonds in Incomplete Markets
(The Wharton Financial Institutions Center. The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, PA, 2017-09)
We model the super-replication of payoffs linked to a country's GDP as a stochastic linear program on a discrete time and state-space scenario tree to price GDP-linked bonds. As a byproduct of the model, we obtain a hedging ...
Pricing options on scenario trees
(2008)
We examine valuation procedures that can be applied to incorporate options in scenario-based portfolio optimization models. Stochastic programming models use discrete scenarios to represent the stochastic evolution of asset ...
Integrated dynamic models for hedging international portfolio
(The Wharton Financial Institutions CenterThe Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, PA, 2017-12)
We develop scenario-based stochastic programming models for hedging the risks of international portfolios using options. The models provide an increasing level of integration in managing market and foreign exchange (FX) ...
Stochastic linear programs with restricted recourse
(1997)
Stochastic programs with recourse provide an effective modeling paradigm for sequential decision problems with uncertain or noisy data, when uncertainty can be modeled by a discrete set of scenarios. In two-stage problems ...
Risk management optimization for sovereign debt restructuring
(Journal of Globalization and Development, Vol. 6(2), pp. 181–213, Feb. 2016.; The Wharton School Financial Institutions Centre No. 14-10., 2015-12)
Debt restructuring is one of the policy tools available for resolving sovereign debt crises and, while unorthodox, it is not uncommon. We propose a scenario analysis for debt sustainability and integrate it with scenario ...
Stochastic debt sustainability analysis for sovereigns and the scope for optimization modeling
(The Wharton Financial Institutions Center. The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, PA., 2017-05)
We express the opinion that sovereign debt sustainability analysis must be augmented by stochastic correlated risk factors and a risk measure to capture tail effects. Crisis situations can thus be adequately specified and ...
Optimizing international portfolios with options and forwards
(2011)
We develop a stochastic programming model to address in a unified manner a number of interrelated decisions in international portfolio management: optimal portfolio diversification and mitigation of market and currency ...
Risk management for sovereign financing within a debt sustainability framework
(European Stability Mechanism Working Paper No. 31, 2018-09)
The mix of instruments used to finance a sovereign is a key determinant of debt sustainability through its effect on funding costs and risks. We extend standard debt sustainability analysis to incorporate debt-financing ...
A dynamic stochastic programming model for international portfolio management
(2008)
We develop a multi-stage stochastic programming model for international portfolio management in a dynamic setting. We model uncertainty in asset prices and exchange rates in terms of scenario trees that reflect the empirical ...