Noisy Introspection in the 11–20 Game
Date
2018ISSN
1468-0297Source
The Economic JournalVolume
128Issue
611Pages
1509-1530Google Scholar check
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Previous experiments based on the 11–20 game have produced evidence for the level-k model with observed levels of strategic thinking consistently ranging from 0 to 3. Our baseline treatment uses the 11–20 game and replicates previous results. We apply four models of strategic thinking to the baseline-treatment data and use these to predict behaviour and beliefs in five other treatments that employ games with a very similar structure. The best predictive performance is achieved by models that incorporate ‘common knowledge of noise’. A model of noisy introspection, which does so, predicts behaviour remarkably well.